Talks between Lebanon’s rival political parties focused on Hizbullah’s weapons have little chance of succeeding given the vested interest of key regional players like Iran and Syria, analysts say.


“This dialogue is going nowhere,” said Rafic Khoury, chief editor of the independent daily Al-Anwar, referring to national defense strategy talks that resumed on Tuesday at the presidential palace before being adjourned to April 15.


“Hizbullah, as well as Syria and Iran, clearly stated recently their strategy of resistance against Israel,” he added.


The talks, launched in 2006, have repeatedly been adjourned because of the successive political crises that have shaken Lebanon. The last round was held in June 2009.


The stated aim is for Lebanon’s parliamentary majority and a coalition led by the Shiite group to agree on a national defense strategy over neighboring enemy Israel.


But a major stumbling block to reaching agreement has been Hizbullah’s weapons.


The group, which sparked a devastating war with Israel in 2006 and is considered a terrorist organization by Washington, is the only faction in Lebanon that has refused to surrender its arsenal following the country’s 1975-90 Civil War.


It argues that Lebanon’s army is ill-equipped and as such its weapons are needed to defend the country against Israeli aggression.


The parliamentary majority, however, argues that any decision concerning war or peace must be made by the state.


“You have two diametrically opposed views with one side arguing that the new national defense strategy must protect Hizbullah’s arsenal and the other wanting to do away with it,” Khoury told AFP.


“They’re going around in circles and each camp is holding its ground,” he added. “It’s like a debating club: you argue but no decision is ever taken.”


Prior to the resumption of the talks on Tuesday, Hizbullah set the tone by saying its weapons were not open to discussion.


For its part, the parliamentary majority argues that Hizbullah cannot be allowed to become a state within a state.


“No one is talking about disarming Hizbullah,” said Ammar Houry, a majority MP. “We want to come up with a solution whereby Hizbullah’s arsenal becomes part of an overall defense strategy overseen by the state.”


But analysts say the majority has little room to maneuver given that the issue extends far beyond Lebanon’s border, with regional players Syria and Iran setting the agenda.


“This is a complex issue that carries regional ramifications,” said Osama Safa, head of the Lebanese Center for Policy studies. “Israel and Syria have a vested interest.


“Dialogue is positive but no one believes this issue is going to be settled in seven or eight sessions or even a year.”


The daily Al-Akhbar, close to Hizbullah, summed up the situation on Tuesday with a headline that read “National dialogue: the play,” while An-Nahar daily, close to the majority, said no breakthrough was expected.


The 2006 war left much of south Lebanon in ruins and killed over 1,200 people, mainly Lebanese civilians, as well as 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.


Israel says Hizbullah has since built up its arsenal, from 14,000 rockets at the outbreak of the 2006 war to 40,000 now.


Last month, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed to unleash the resistance group’s military might on Israel’s infrastructure, including Tel Aviv airport, should Israel attack Lebanon.


Hizbullah has participated in government since 2005 and has two ministers in the 30-member unity Cabinet.

AFP